The Brandon Saad trade and the closing of the Blackhawks Stanley Cup window

One of the great debates around the Blackhawks in recent years has been when their Stanley Cup window actually began to close.

As good as winning three Cups in six seasons was, some believe they could have won more.

Many will point to June 23, 2017, as the day the window was yanked close. That’s when the Blackhawks announced within 10 minutes they had traded Niklas Hjalmarsson and Artemi Panarin. Chicago had accumulated a Western Conference-best 109 points during the 2016-17 regular season but was bounced in four games by the Predators in the first round. General manager Stan Bowman promised change, and those trades brought it. Since then, the Blackhawks haven’t finished better than sixth in the Central Division.

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Others point to the large contracts given out and how they limited the team going forward. Brent Seabrook’s eight-year, $55 million contract is the main one of note, but the Blackhawks also had long-term deals on the books for Jonathan Toews, Patrick Kane, Duncan Keith and Marian Hossa. They had to trade away promising young players because of the resulting cap constraints.

That leads us to another trade that may have shortened the Cup window or at least prevented the Blackhawks from a good chance to repeat as champions in 2016: the move to send Brandon Saad to the Blue Jackets on June 30, 2015.

Saad, who was 22 at the time of the trade, seemed like he was going to be part of the Blackhawks’ next generation. He had already been part of two Cup wins and had played 200-plus regular-season games and 67 playoff games. He was coming off his first 20-goal season and was a fixture on the top line alongside Hossa and Toews. It was easy to envision him wearing No. 20 for the Blackhawks for the next decade.

Then he was gone. Saad’s entry-level contract was expiring after the 2014-15 season, and he wanted a bump. The Blackhawks weren’t willing, so Bowman traded him.

That resulted in Chicago searching for a player like Saad most of that next season, eventually trading a first-round pick to acquire Andrew Ladd at the deadline. And that led to Bowman not addressing his team’s true issue: defensive depth. The Blues capitalized on that in the first round and eliminated the Blackhawks in seven games.

But what if the Blackhawks hadn’t traded Saad? Can you imagine them with Saad on the top line and Panarin on the second line that season? It wasn’t an either/or scenario; they could have had both. And if they had still had Saad, they could have gone out and bolstered their defense and, just maybe, made a run at another Stanley Cup.

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So why and how did it all go down? As part of The Athletic’s series on how NHL trades really go down, let’s revisit this one in depth.

The main thing to understand about Saad’s contract situation at the end of the 2014-15 season was that he didn’t have arbitration rights. So the Blackhawks had leverage.

You saw how that worked out with Brandon Hagel and Dylan Strome in recent years. The team signed both to multiyear deals, and both had to settle for less than they wanted. The Blackhawks could have waited out Hagel and Strome as long as they wanted. With Strome, the extension wasn’t done until right before the season. Bowman could have done the same with Saad. Saad was certainly a higher-profile player, but there still didn’t have to be a rush to get his contract done.

The sides did have plenty of negotiations before the trade. Saad was seeking $6 million on a long-term deal. The Blackhawks were willing to give about $5.3 million, which would have brought them close to the cap ceiling. Saad declined. The Blackhawks moved quickly.

The Blackhawks could have played hardball. Even if negotiations had carried over into the regular season, they would have likely gotten by without him for some time, and the pressure would likely have grown only on Saad. A one-year deal might have ultimately been the way for Saad to go, so he could get to arbitration.

Saad said recently he wasn’t sure what would happen when he turned down the team’s offer. He was so new to everything.

“I really didn’t think about what they were going to do or even being traded,” he recalled. “Just kind of talking to my agent and talking to them and then trying to figure something out … kind of deal with it as it came.”

Bowman decided negotiations weren’t going anywhere and the best move was to get something while he could. The fear of an offer sheet factored into this, but it’s still unknown whether that was a real threat.

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Bowman was interested in acquiring a big center to play on the second line with Kane. It just so happened the Blue Jackets were open to moving Artem Anisimov, who fit the bill. As Blue Jackets general manager Jarmo Kekalainen recalled, the trade came together quickly. The Blackhawks sent Saad, Michael Paliotta and Alex Broadhurst to Columbus for Anisimov, Marko Dano, Jeremy Morin, Corey Tropp and a fourth-round pick.

Saad had an idea something could be coming.

“Even a week before, they kind of made it seem like it wasn’t gonna get done,” he said. “I think they might even have told my agent, ‘Hey, we’re going to trade him because we don’t think we’re going to get to a conclusion here.’ So at the time, I really wasn’t sure if it was gonna happen or if it was a bluff.

“And then you get a phone call a few days later.”

The Blackhawks had lineup question marks heading into 2015-16 training camp, but they were hopeful they’d find the answers within the roster pool.

They only found a few.

On the positive side, their scouting staff had projected Panarin to be a third-line winger. He shocked them with his skill in camp, quickly finding his way to Kane’s line.

On the other hand, the Blackhawks were hopeful Marko Dano, who was 20 and had shown offensive potential with Columbus the season before, could become the next Saad. He didn’t last long, though. He was off the top line early in camp. That kicked off an endless search for a top left wing, with Andrew Shaw, Teuvo Teravainen, Viktor Tikhonov, Ryan Garbutt and Bryan Bickell getting shots, and Dano even getting another.

None of the players fit like Saad, as the numbers show. During the 2014-15 season, the Saad-Toews-Hossa line played 517:43 together at five-on-five and had a 57.64 percent Corsi-for share and a 58.43 percent expected-goals share, with the Blackhawks outscoring competition 28-13 when they were on the ice, according to Natural Stat Trick. In 2015-16, Toews’ numbers, especially, took a hit without Saad. He had a 50.98 percent Corsi-for share, a 49.39 percent expected-goals share and was on the ice for 39 goals for and 39 goals against.

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“Saader wasn’t the biggest guy, but he was powerful and really a force to the net — quick shot and a really powerful skater — so you miss when he leaves,” Hossa recently said. “You miss that type of player. I think our line, with me and Jonny and Saader, we had the chemistry that year and played together for a while. All of a sudden, you miss that one piece. It’s not easy to replace. ”

Toews wasn’t exactly pleased with the carousel at left wing, and the team knew it. He wanted stability, like Kane had with Anisimov and Panarin. The solution became acquiring Ladd from the Jets for a first-round pick, a third-round pick and Dano. It was a high price and would be the Blackhawks’ big move of the deadline.

And to be fair, Ladd was fine with the Blackhawks. He had eight goals and 12 points in 19 regular-season games and a goal and an assist in seven playoff games. He wasn’t the reason the Blackhawks lost to the Blues.

The reason the Blackhawks lost to the Blues was their defensive depth.

They had ridden Keith, Seabrook, Hjalmarsson and Johnny Oduya during their Stanley Cup run in 2015. Oduya signed with Dallas after the season. The Blackhawks hoped Trevor Daley could replace him, but Daley was traded by December. Trevor van Riemsdyk stepped up and became an everyday defenseman, but the team had other holes in the defense and they were never filled.

Come the playoffs, Blackhawks coach Joel Quenneville leaned hard on Keith, Seabrook, Hjalmarsson and van Riemsdyk. They all averaged at least 23 minutes per game. Michal Rozsival, Erik Gustafsson, David Rundblad and Viktor Svedberg were the other options.

Then-Blues coach Ken Hitchcock was well aware of the situation and took advantage.

“They were shortening their bench, and over the course of a long series, we thought we could wear down Seabrook and Keith because they were playing 25-plus minutes,” Hitchcock said recently. “They had shortened their back end.”

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The Blues were also more physical with the Blackhawks than they had been in the past.

“There were three teams that were constantly in the hunt against each other, and it was us, Chicago and Los Angeles,” Hitchcock said. “In our game, we had to find a way that we could control those teams, because especially Chicago had so much talent and depth offensively. We felt we had to get them into a little bit of a street fight.”

Kane was asked recently when he thought the window closed. Could it have been the Saad trade?

“I don’t know,” Kane said. “It seemed like they’re in contract negotiations and it didn’t work out and then you try to make a move and trade him and make the team better. So, I don’t know. I think it would have been nice to kind of figure out signing Saader and then if you get Breadman coming from overseas from being a free agent, then you obviously look at it a little bit differently.

“I guess when you go through situations where you have contract disputes and you’re always up against a salary cap, you probably need to make tough decisions.”

Kane also wasn’t so sure of the premise that the Blackhawks didn’t have a chance to win another Stanley Cup after the trade.

“We still had a good year that year,” Kane said. “We ended up playing St. Louis in the first round. And the next year, I believe we won the West, so we still have some of that window left. And then, start making moves like trading Hjalmarsson and Panarin. All of a sudden, there’s a different outlook.

“But, yeah, it’s easy to look back on it and say, ‘We could have done this or that.’ I think it was a good run.”

Saad, who was later reacquired by the Blackhawks — and then traded away again, has no regrets. He was after what he thought was a fair price.

“That’s kind of the business side of it,” Saad said. “At the time, I was definitely upset, because you have success and you win Stanley Cups and you have friendships and memories. And I really, I honestly thought I was gonna be a Blackhawk forever.

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“But fortunately, I got to come back and get to play some more in Chicago. And like I said, I’ve got nothing bad to say about the Hawks. … It’s been an amazing journey and memories of a lifetime from them.”

(Top photo: Bruce Bennett / Getty Images)

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