Sarris: Starting pitcher ranks for the rest of the season

Publish date: 2024-04-20

Between injuries, the ball flying better than it did last year, the new shift rules, and the pitch clock, it’s not easy being a pitcher this year. The increase in the run environment from last year to this year has only been topped five times in the free agency era, and we just have to get used to a 4.30 ERA being average now, and that finding a healthy arm is going to be as hard for fantasy players as it is for real-life teams.

Below is a ranking of the starting pitchers that remain, using Stuff+ to gauge the physical properties of their pitches, Location+ to judge the locations they’re throwing to, and projected ERA (ppERA) and strikeout rates (ppK%) using those metrics and regressing them along with other results to make them even more predictive.

It’s the best we can do in difficult times. Stay safe out there, pitchers! Full projections, along with Triple-A Stuff+ numbers, can be found on the Google doc.

Eno	ppERA	ppK%	Stuff+	Location+	Pitching+	League	Team	April	PreSeason
1	1.47	39.5%	160	106	116	AL	TEX	1	8
2	2.66	35.9%	129	106	116	NL	ATL	2	5
3	3.17	31.5%	123	103	110	AL	NYY	4	2
4	3.16	29.3%	113	102	107	AL	TBR	6	7
5	2.79	33.3%	128	93	103	AL	LAA	5	3
6	3.04	29.5%	119	100	104	NL	MIL	3	1
7	3.17	28.9%	114	105	108	AL	TOR	10	17
8	3.32	27.6%	110	103	105	NL	LAD	16	34
9	3.46	26.9%	110	104	109	NL	PHI	11	15
10	3.76	26.3%	107	104	108	NL	ARI	12	20
11	3.78	25.5%	103	106	103	NL	NYM	8	9
12	3.57	24.0%	111	103	105	NL	MIA	7	4
13	3.59	25.1%	111	98	101	AL	HOU	19	25
14	3.07	32.1%	122	105	111	AL	TBR	20	50
15	3.78	25.3%	96	103	103	AL	SEA	18	14
16	3.79	29.0%	112	97	104	AL	CHW	9	13
17	3.78	27.4%	100	103	103	NL	NYM	15	11
18	3.14	31.8%	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A	AL	NYY	21	10
19	3.77	26.2%	105	102	104	AL	HOU	30	63
20	3.72	26.1%	112	101	106	NL	SDP	14	22
21	3.74	26.8%	109	109	108	AL	MIN	26	45
22	3.78	23.4%	102	111	109	AL	SEA	27	31
23	3.99	27.1%	107	100	105	NL	MIL	23	51
24	3.62	23.5%	103	103	100	NL	SFG	28	27
25	3.83	24.8%	100	102	102	AL	SEA	32	30
26	4.00	25.1%	95	108	105	NL	PHI	17	12
27	4.01	23.5%	99	101	99	AL	CLE	25	24
28	4.33	28.1%	97	99	100	AL	HOU	35	16
29	3.86	24.1%	101	101	98	NL	SDP	40	33
30	3.92	22.1%	94	106	103	AL	TBR	52	67
31	3.71	31.4%	125	104	109	NL	CIN	24	37
32	4.05	25.9%	108	109	107	AL	NYY	36	26
33	4.08	24.7%	102	107	109	NL	MIA	39	53
34	4.09	23.2%	105	106	106	NL	PIT	75	95
35	4.05	24.4%	105	105	106	NL	LAD	33	21
36	3.89	22.3%	94	99	101	NL	ATL	29	29
37	4.15	25.3%	102	103	103	AL	NYY	34	36
38	3.82	23.6%	101	103	102	AL	TEX	58	51
39	3.99	26.6%	111	98	100	NL	ATL	38	42
40	4.06	24.0%	114	107	115
41	4.06	23.8%	120	105	110
42	4.00	23.9%	116	101	103	AL	BAL	69	68
43	4.10	23.8%	112	101	106	AL	TB	48
44	4.01	24.2%	98	100	101	AL	MIN	59	62
45	4.05	21.8%	99	101	98	NL	STL	51	43
46	4.03	21.6%	102	100	100	NL	CHC	67	65
47	4.14	27.7%	107	93	95	NL	SDP	37	23
48	4.22	24.4%	92	102	100	AL	BOS	76	39
49	3.92	24.2%	113	106	106	AL	CLE	61	70
50	4.30	22.8%	95	100	99	AL	TEX	64	52
51	4.27	25.7%	98	94	98	NL	NYM	50	43
52	4.24	25.2%	103	100	102	NL	MIA	43	64
53	4.17	26.5%	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A	AL	CLE	44	38
54	4.49	24.2%	105	93	99	NL	MIA
55	4.13	23.4%	99	102	101	AL	BOS	82	113
56	4.11	25.4%	110	104	107	AL	NYY	79	97
57	4.19	22.9%	99	102	102	NL	CHC	71	88
58	4.25	22.3%	97	104	102	AL	OAK	96	159
59	4.31	22.3%	99	103	102	AL	TOR	65	58
60	4.42	23.8%	104	101	103	NL	LAD	94	77
61	4.45	26.4%	114	95	100	AL	CHW	74	82
62	4.15	25.9%	99	99	97	AL	TEX	55	54
63	4.28	25.9%	105	100	100	AL	LAA	95	78
64	4.46	22.2%	100	107	105	AL	MIN	120	170
65	4.48	23.4%	101	98	102	AL	CLE	77
66	4.64	22.6%	88	103	101	AL	CLE	62
67	4.41	24.2%	94	102	102	AL	CHW	93	76
68	4.16	21.2%	87	100	100	NL	SFG	54	53
69	4.51	18.1%	91	108	101	NL	STL	83	72
70	4.61	22.0%	97	107	105	NL	ARI	100	74
71	4.47	21.0%	91	99	98	AL	TOR	87	47
72	4.65	21.2%	92	99	97	AL	LAA	66	58
73	4.50	19.7%	93	100	99	NL	SFG	105	166
74	4.49	22.1%	92	95	93	AL	TOR	60	28
75	4.27	23.3%	91	104	100	AL	CHW	63	46
76	4.54	25.1%	107	101	105	AL	HOU
77	4.69	24.4%	104	100	102	NL	WSN	109	102
78	4.55	20.6%	104	103	103	AL	DET	129	125
79	4.53	21.7%	94	103	102	AL	BAL	110	103
80	4.41	23.3%	95	106	106	NL	MIA	81	61
81	4.32	22.9%	103	105	104	AL	MIN	101	79
82	4.23	23.0%	98	103	101	NL	SDP	45
83	3.49	28.7%	112	105	108	NL	MIL	49	6
84	4.37	21.7%	84	106	100	AL	DET	104	94
85	3.18	30.0%	122	98	104	AL	OAK	47
86	3.77	25.8%	119	104	109	NL	LAD	13	41
87	3.21	26.2%	120	110	113	AL	TBR	22	33
88	4.49	22.2%	102	103	102	NL	CHC	68	56
89	4.53	24.5%	106	102	103	AL	TOR	86	126
90	4.66	20.5%	88	101	97	NL	MIA	91	124
91	4.69	22.0%	94	103	104	AL	LAA	88
92	4.60	25.1%	96	96	95	NL	MIA	78	81
93	4.66	21.1%	90	105	102	NL	SDP	111	182
94	4.13	22.9%	99	96	92	NL	SFG	53	75
95	4.73	23.1%	91	99	96	NL	SFG	102	86
96	4.32	22.4%	95	102	102	AL	BOS	84	121
97	4.64	21.9%	92	99	99	NL	STL	92	87
98	4.42	18.1%	91	98	95	AL	OAK	143	118
99	4.37	21.0%	89	97	94	AL	KCR	80	71
100	4.17	21.6%	95	102	99	NL	STL	73	96
101	4.70	20.2%	88	97	95	NL	NYM	97	71
102	4.69	20.5%	93	105	102	NL	SFG	98	73
103	4.64	18.4%	91	99	94	AL	BAL	130	119
104	4.66	19.5%	91	86	89	NL	STL
105	5.05	21.1%	80	106	103	AL	MIN	139	106
106	5.04	18.0%	77	100	97	NL	ATL	137
107	4.81	19.4%	82	101	91	NL	ATL	142	114
108	4.67	21.5%	95	99	98	AL	NYY	136	120
109	4.05	26.0%	103	99	102	AL	BAL	31	49
110	4.42	26.4%	96	102	98	NL	CIN	56	57
111	4.20	22.1%	125	97	102	NL	CIN	46	92
112	4.90	21.0%	97	100	101	NL	PIT	72	84
113	4.74	19.8%	106	97	96	NL	PIT	119	107
114	4.71	20.2%	85	106	102	NL	PHI	114	98
115	4.90	23.4%	101	99	98	AL	BOS	161	135
116	4.93	17.8%	77	106	97	AL	TEX	113	130
117	5.01	20.5%	96	102	100	NL	PHI	103	99
118	4.25	19.8%	110	102	101	NL	STL	140	107
119	4.78	15.3%	86	104	102	AL	KCR	149	148
120	4.61	20.2%	100	102	100	AL	BAL	132	142
121	5.10	19.9%	101	103	103	NL	ARI	115	85
122	4.98	20.1%	98	105	104	NL	CHC	116	89
123	4.10	27.7%	102	104	104	NL	PHI	57
124	4.37	24.1%	108	103	107	AL	BOS	107	136
125	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A	AL	HOU	89	69
126	4.26	22.7%	103	97	93	NL	ATL	70	48
127	5.50	21.1%	88	94	89	NL	WSN	152	134
128	4.48	22.0%	80	106	106	AL	BOS	99	66
129	4.74	21.5%	90	93	90	NL	NYM	90	111
130	4.98	17.8%	94	99	94	AL	CLE	151	133
131	4.94	19.5%	93	98	94	AL	BOS	112	93
132	4.78	21.2%	98	105	106	AL	HOU	117	90
133	4.91	19.5%	92	98	97	NL	PIT	118	187
134	4.32	25.2%	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A	NL	CHC
135	4.64	23.0%	102	101	102	NL	ARI	121	154
136	4.30	28.1%	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A	NL	SFG	155	145
137	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A	AL	DET	141	112
138	5.16	21.0%	91	104	98	NL	LAD	156
139	4.39	23.4%	87	97	94	NL	NYM	106	115
140	4.63	22.7%	87	94	89	NL	LAD	122	156
141	5.02	#N/A	101	#N/A	#N/A	AL	MIN	146	129
142	4.65	21.5%	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A	AL	DET
143	4.78	22.2%	90	93	91	AL	OAK	123	100
144	4.77	17.5%	102	97	95	AL	TBR	124	141
145	4.75	15.6%	85	101	97	AL	TBR	126
146	5.00	20.1%	89	102	97	NL	CHC	166	153
147	4.79	21.3%	96	107	105	AL	DET
148	4.86	21.9%	98	100	102	NL	PIT	153	165
149	4.81	18.9%	96	104	102	AL	DET	150	131
150	5.00	18.5%	98	89	90	AL	KCR	127	171
151	4.13	27.4%	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A	AL	CLE		143
152	4.76	20.6%	101	96	95	NL	ARI	135	161
153	4.91	20.2%	85	96	93	AL	DET	134	117
154	5.33	16.9%	78	105	99	NL	LAD	138	102
155	5.03	18.1%	93	99	96	AL	LAA	144	116
156	5.31	18.8%	80	99	92	AL	HOU
157	5.47	18.5%	82	106	97	NL	WSN	157	146
158	5.10	19.2%	88	99	96	AL	OAK		162
159	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A	AL	BAL	178	176
160	5.18	17.4%	92	104	99	NL	MIL	154	179
161	4.80	20.1%	102	92	94	AL	OAK	192
162	5.58	16.1%	88	102	97	NL	SDP	164
163	5.13	20.0%	94	101	100	NL	COL	165	151
164	4.14	23.2%	113	98	102	NL	SFG		167
165	4.37	25.6%	85	103	100	AL	BAL	147	110
166	4.53	24.8%	112	98	102	AL	BOS	85	122
167	5.26	16.0%	86	109	101	AL	SEA	173	169
168	5.00	20.3%	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A	AL	TBR	158	147
169	5.02	22.3%	86	107	107	NL	MIL
170	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A	AL	TOR	175	173
171	5.45	17.2%	67	108	92	NL	CHC	176	174
172	5.10	17.6%	91	105	101	NL	MIL	196	198
173	5.44	18.9%	79	106	97	NL	PHI	172	164
174	4.76	19.5%	96	103	101	AL	LAA
175	5.28	22.2%	94	104	98	NL	CIN

(Photo of Spencer Strider: Dale Zanine / USA TODAY)

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Sarris: Starting pitcher ranks for the rest of the season