NFL Week 12 takeaways: Are Bills playoff hopes over after OT loss to Eagles?

Cover 7 | Sunday A daily NFL destination that provides in-depth analysis of football’s biggest stories. Each Sunday, three of The Athletic’s NFL writers react to the biggest news, plays and performances from the day’s games.

The NFL had 11 games on the Week 12 Sunday docket, and quarterbacks were a talking point all day.

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Dorian Thompson-Robinson left the Cleveland Browns’ loss to the Denver Broncos late in the third quarter with a concussion. The New England Patriots benched Mac Jones (again) in another loss, this time to the New York Giants. Kenny Pickett made his first start since the firing of offensive coordinator Matt Canada and outdueled the Cincinnati Bengals’ Jake Browning, who was making his first career start following Joe Burrow’s season-ending wrist injury. Desmond Ridder helped halt the Falcons’ three-game losing streak in his return as Atlanta’s starter, beating the New Orleans Saints.

But the day’s biggest drama came on long field-goal attempts at the end of regulation in two games. The Eagles’ Jake Elliott made a 59-yard field goal that sent Philadelphia to overtime, where it beat the Buffalo Bills to improve to a league-best 10-1. Earlier Sunday afternoon, the Jacksonville Jaguars held on to defeat the Houston Texans after Matt Ammendola missed a 58-yard field goal with 34 seconds remaining in regulation, the ball bouncing off the crossbar.

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The Bills went toe-to-toe with the Eagles but still lost 37-34 in overtime. Now they enter their bye 6-6, with games against the Kansas City Chiefs and Dallas Cowboys in Weeks 14 and 15. Is an AFC playoff berth still a realistic possibility?

Jones: It’s not looking good. Their stretch run goes like this: at Kansas City, versus Dallas, at Chargers, versus New England, at Miami. That’s three potential playoff teams on tap. They have to hope to catch fire and also pray the Browns continue to falter, the Texans and Indianapolis Colts begin to struggle, and that the Broncos go cold, because right now, the Colts, Texans and Broncos all hold tiebreakers over them. It’s amazing such a talented team might miss the playoffs, but the Bills really have no one but themselves to blame. The front office didn’t do enough to further upgrade this roster in the offseason. Holding on to Ken Dorsey, who wasn’t able to further evolve the offense, wound up being a mistake as well. And self-inflicted wounds on the field also have hurt the Bills in a big way.

THE EAGLES WIN A THRILLER IN OT! #BUFvsPHI pic.twitter.com/sZpCdrwc7d

— NFL (@NFL) November 27, 2023

Nguyen: With Josh Allen, it’s always possible, but they are on the brink of being knocked out of contention. The Bills are always in games and they’ll never be big underdogs, but they just make so many mistakes that pile up over the course of a game. They had a chance to beat the Eagles in overtime but there was a miscommunication on a potential TD pass between Allen and Gabe Davis. Defensively, they can’t hang with upper-tier teams because of all of the injuries they’ve suffered. They might have to go 4-1 in their last five to make the playoffs. If they do, they’ll have certainly earned it.

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Pompei: It’s still possible. They should be encouraged because they showed they can hang with maybe the best team in the NFL. But the bigger issue is they keep finding ways to lose games they should win. They were in control of the game Sunday until Allen threw a fourth-quarter interception. Allen played well except for the one critical mistake. In addition to the turnover, the Bills gave the Eagles 80 yards on 11 penalties. Good teams don’t do that. Their injury-depleted defense couldn’t make a stop when it needed one.

The Broncos have won five in a row after knocking off the Browns 29-12. Is it time to believe in the Sean Payton and Russell Wilson partnership?

Jones: I do think it’s time, because Payton realized that at this point in Wilson’s career, less is more. Russ would love to cook, but Payton recognized the quarterback is more effective when directing a balanced rather than pass-heavy offense. The Broncos have leaned into the run game, topping the 120-yard mark in four of the five games of this win streak. Wilson hasn’t posted a single 300-yard passing outing during that span, averaging only about 170 passing yards per game. But he also hasn’t thrown an interception in the last five games. The recipe has turned Payton’s Broncos into one of the hottest teams in the league and now at 6-5, they have a shot at the playoffs. Payton certainly entered this season with a bigger head than he should have, because his team wasn’t as good as he thought, and his preferred philosophies wound up not working with this squad. But give him credit for calling an audible and figuring out how to maximize the strengths of this unit and guide it toward a turnaround.

Nguyen: Payton has found a formula with Wilson that works. If his first read isn’t there, he’s checking it down, running or running and making a safe play. He’s not big-game hunting when the play breaks down anymore. He does occasionally do it in the red zone, like on his touchdown pass to Adam Trautman. The formula is working but they’re winning because of their defense and the sort of production Wilson has had in their win streak doesn’t match his contract. In four of the five games of the Broncos’ win streak, Wilson has passed for fewer than 200 yards and averaged fewer than 7 yards an attempt. Wilson should get credit for cleaning up his game and being so willing to play this style, but I’d imagine the Broncos would still look to part from Wilson as soon as they can.

Pompei: I always believed in the partnership. I also believed it would take time for it to become strong and fruitful. Payton is one of the premier offensive minds/quarterback mentors in today’s NFL. Wilson has been one of the most successful quarterbacks of his era. As long as both are flexible and open-minded, they can win together. Struggling in 2022 might have been the best thing that could have happened to Wilson in the context of the remainder of his career. He needed to change his mindset, and it appears he has. The Broncos aren’t a great team. They are in a semi-rebuild. But they can continue to be as competitive as they have been in their last five games. And they can be significantly better in 2024.

The Steelers finished with 421 yards of total offense and beat the Bengals 16-10 in their first game since Canada’s firing. Who or what impressed you the most on offense today, and why?

Jones: The biggest thing that stood out to me was the way that newly elevated play-caller Mike Sullivan produced better results with a simplified and more intentional approach. Sixteen points are nothing to write home about, but that was the Steelers’ first game with 400-plus offensive yards in 58 contests. Fifty-eight! The key: Sullivan understands that a strong and consistent rushing attack and a reliable tight end are the two best friends to a young quarterback. He also gave receivers assignments that required less thinking, which translated into being able to play faster.

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But the ground game was important. With 153 team rushing yards (including 99 and a touchdown by Najee Harris) and a nine-catch, 120-yard day for tight end Pat Freiermuth, the Steelers gave Pickett the support he needed for one of his most effective days as a pro. Pickett completed 24 of 33 passes for 278 yards, and his completion percentage of 72.7 was well above his previous season high of 68.0. His 97.8 passer rating was his second-highest of the season. The Steelers also won the time-of-possession battle 37:17 to 22:43 after converting 8-of-17 third downs for first downs.

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Nguyen: Putting up 16 points against the Bengals isn’t very impressive but they could have had 7 more points if Mike Tomlin had challenged what should have been a Diontae Johnson touchdown — the drive ended in a fumble. Overall, Pickett was put in position to win. The offense stayed ahead of schedule and ran the ball well, and I liked how Freiermuth was a big part of the game plan. He was the player of the game offensively, in my opinion.

Pickett is good at throwing seam balls and Freiermuth is a big target in that area of the field. Overall, I liked how the Steelers managed their weapons and dispersed touches. It was certainly an encouraging start for the post-Canada era but there’s a lot more to prove to feel encouraged about this offense.

Pompei: The Steelers weren’t spectacular, and it wasn’t like any individual dominated. No one on this team is going to win AFC Offensive Player of the Week. But the Steelers ran the ball, sustained drives, won time of possession, converted third downs and made 22 first downs. They could have scored more points, but they scored enough to win. So, for the first time in awhile, the Steelers looked like they had an offense that was in sync. And it happened against a rival and a defensive coordinator in Lou Anarumo who knows where the soft spots are. It felt like the first game of the rest of the season for the Steelers offense.

The Jaguars’ 24-21 win over the Texans puts them solidly in the driver’s seat atop the AFC South. Now 8-3, do the Jags have the talent (and a favorable-enough schedule) to ascend to the AFC’s No. 1 seed by season’s end?

Jones: They’re in a good position in their division, but I don’t see the Jaguars as the No. 1 seed in the AFC come season’s end. Trevor Lawrence isn’t consistent enough. The Jaguars are fortunate they don’t have to face Burrow or Deshaun Watson in the next two weeks, though the Bengals and Browns both have really smart defensive coordinators capable of giving Lawrence some trouble. Then the Jags face the Baltimore Ravens, who are better both offensively and defensively. Again, Doug Pederson and his team really helped themselves with this win. But top seed? I don’t see it.

Nguyen: Definitely. The defense carried them in the early part of their schedule and now the offense is starting to shape up. Calvin Ridley is looking like the No. 1 receiver they thought would take their offense to the next level. They still make too many self-inflicted errors from dropped passes, Lawrence putting the ball in harm’s way or just bad play-calls like the pitch to Travis Etienne before halftime. Also, left tackle Cam Robinson’s knee injury is concerning. But playing opponents with a losing record in four of their last six games will give them some wiggle room to iron these issues out. One of the teams with a winning record they’ll play is the Browns, who lost Watson for the season. The No. 1 seed is definitely in play.

Pompei: They can be the No. 1 seed in the AFC, but probably will need a little help in the form of some losses for the Ravens, Dolphins and Chiefs. The Jags’ Sunday night game in Jacksonville against the Ravens on Dec. 17 could determine who secures home field for the playoffs. They are likely to be favored in each of their remaining games except their contest against Baltimore. And depending on what happens between now and then, Jacksonville could even be favored in that game. The Jaguars can be a better team than they’ve been, too — there is room for improvement, especially in the passing game. If Josh Allen keeps rushing the passer the way he is, the Jaguars will have a chance to beat most opponents.

Mac Jones had another rough day, throwing two interceptions in a 10-7 loss to the Giants before being benched for Bailey Zappe at halftime. Zappe didn’t play well, either, throwing his own interception. What should the Patriots do at QB for the rest of this season? Does it even matter?

Jones: Eh, does it matter? Neither quarterback is very good. The Patriots have few weapons capable of hurting a defense. I suppose Zappe is slightly better than Jones because although he’s limited, he doesn’t make as many “what was he thinking” type of throws. But this is basically the Titanic going under. It doesn’t matter who Bill Belichick starts.

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Nguyen: I don’t think it matters. Zappe didn’t play much better than Jones, though he did lead the Patriots to a touchdown drive. I think you have to start Zappe and see if he can improve with more snaps. Maybe mix in some Malik Cunningham option snaps to spark the offense. Doing something unconventional and transitioning to an option offense might be the best hope. The Patriots are 2-9. The playoffs are out of the picture, so the focus should be seeing what your other young quarterbacks can do. You can’t keep Jones in with all of the horrific mental mistakes he has made.

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Pompei: They don’t have a very good option, which is a primary reason they are 2-9. It feels like the Patriots can’t go back to Jones. Not now, anyway. The other players couldn’t possibly get on board with Jones. If Belichick went with Jones, he would have to risk perhaps benching him a fifth time. That being said, he needs to play the quarterback who he feels gives the Patriots the best chance. That’s probably Zappe, even if the value in making a change is mostly psychological. What’s clear is the problem is bigger than the quarterback.

The Carolina Panthers looked better against the Tennessee Titans but still lost 17-10. Was progress made Sunday in this season of growing pains, or are the Panthers (now 1-10) still stuck in neutral?

Jones: They’re basically stuck in neutral. Look at the young quarterbacks around the league who are playing well, and then look at Bryce Young. The biggest difference is Brock Purdy, C.J. Stroud and even Thompson-Robinson are running systems designed to ease pressure on them and put them in position for makeable throws that will help them settle into a rhythm and then build confidence. Frank Reich was regarded as a good offensive mind, but he still doesn’t seem to understand that the Panthers need to rely more heavily on the rushing attack and play-action to help buy Young time and keep the defense off-balance. The other problem is that the Panthers don’t have much talent across the board. When I talk to talent evaluators and coaches around the league about Carolina, they all note the Panthers coaches don’t have much with which to work. People are starting to talk about Reich’s job security, but general manager Scott Fitterer also could wind up getting fired this offseason.

Leaving the locker room, David Tepper shook his head and yelled, “F—-!”

— Joe Person (@josephperson) November 26, 2023

Nguyen: It’s hard to be encouraged when Young is forced to play this defensive style of ball. He’s getting pressured so quickly and often, he doesn’t have much of an opportunity to develop as a downfield passer. He also might be ingraining bad habits. He’s being asked to carry an offense that has no running game and no legitimate weapons. It’s an impossible task for a rookie quarterback.

Pompei: Unless they’re playing horseshoes, the way they lost matters not. Young still looks like a struggling rookie, and he isn’t getting much help from his teammates. The Panthers’ skill position players on offense are among the least talented in the league. Young might look a lot different if the Panthers had not traded DJ Moore and Christian McCaffrey. Then again, Young wouldn’t be a Panther if the team had not made those deals. The Panthers had to know this was going to be a tough year. But they need to make some progress in their remaining six games.

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(Top photo of Josh Allen: Mitchell Leff / Getty Images)

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